Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.427585 0.497870 0.573850 0.661820 0.760580 0.867747 0.992537
2025-04-13 0.310970 0.398735 0.500979 0.627884 0.780089 0.955660 1.172307
2025-04-20 0.241305 0.339528 0.462348 0.624852 0.831609 1.083136 1.409195
2025-04-27 0.183917 0.284953 0.420734 0.612121 0.869891 1.199579 1.646831
2025-05-04 0.144044 0.246008 0.393195 0.613718 0.927058 1.346706 1.939816
2025-05-11 0.111931 0.211517 0.366134 0.612226 0.980465 1.495602 2.251954
2025-05-18 0.080811 0.171079 0.322907 0.580673 0.987725 1.583034 2.491129
2025-05-25 0.056442 0.135295 0.279756 0.541964 0.979160 1.647246 2.704872
2025-06-01 0.042085 0.113838 0.256383 0.531520 1.013206 1.778264 3.028940
2025-06-08 0.030933 0.095125 0.233800 0.518519 1.041423 1.903437 3.356264
2025-06-15 0.024741 0.085517 0.226954 0.533259 1.119037 2.115043 3.836263
2025-06-22 0.017299 0.069371 0.202218 0.508949 1.124105 2.208148 4.135829
2025-06-29 0.012350 0.057914 0.185564 0.499551 1.158835 2.360746 4.556031
2025-07-06 0.008484 0.047358 0.167789 0.484188 1.180291 2.493144 4.955347
2025-07-13 0.006348 0.041532 0.160593 0.491461 1.248314 2.716118 5.528728
2025-07-20 0.004511 0.035338 0.150215 0.489069 1.296262 2.907144 6.062051
2025-07-27 0.003337 0.031130 0.144432 0.497187 1.368317 3.150969 6.709096
2025-08-03 0.002404 0.027119 0.137755 0.501621 1.433041 3.386736 7.359048
2025-08-10 0.001476 0.021529 0.122786 0.479411 1.433310 3.494722 7.779770
2025-08-17 0.000829 0.016465 0.106884 0.449970 1.411546 3.555437 8.115169
2025-08-24 0.000523 0.013717 0.099227 0.443964 1.446810 3.738217 8.699294
2025-08-31 0.000313 0.011266 0.091375 0.435171 1.473635 3.905252 9.263602
2025-09-07 0.000223 0.010255 0.090401 0.450003 1.565220 4.221247 10.145583